Prediction and Severity Ratings of COVID-19 in the United States

Abstract

ABSTRACT Objectives: The objectives of this study is to predict the possible trajectory of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread in the United States. Prediction and severity ratings of COVID-19 are essential for pandemic control and economic reopening in the United States. Method: In this study, we apply the logistic and Gompertz model to evaluate possible turning points of the COVID-19 pandemic in different regions. By combining uncertainty and severity factors, this study constructed an indicator to assess the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in various states. Results: Based on the index of severity ratings, different regions of the United States are classified into 4 categories. The result shows that it is possible to identify the first turning point in Montana and Hawaii. It is unclear when the rest of the states will reach the first peak. However, it can be inferred that 75% of regions will not reach the first peak of coronavirus before August 2, 2020. Conclusion: It is still essential for the majority of states to take proactive steps to fight against COVID-19 before August 2, 2020.