How to Save Pascal (and Ourselves) From the Mugger

Author:

Hiller Avram,Hasan Ali

Abstract

Abstract In this article, we re-examine Pascal's Mugging, and argue that it is a deeper problem than the St. Petersburg paradox. We offer a way out that is consistent with classical decision theory. Specifically, we propose a “many muggers” response analogous to the “many gods” objection to Pascal's Wager. When a very tiny probability of a great reward becomes a salient outcome of a choice, such as in the offer of the mugger, it can be discounted on the condition that there are many other symmetric, non-salient rewards that one may receive if one chooses otherwise.

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Subject

Philosophy

Reference24 articles.

1. Yudkowsky, E. (2007, October 19). Pascal's mugging: Tiny probabilities of vast utilities. Less Wrong. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a5JAiTdytou3Jg749/pascal-s-mugging-tiny-probabilities-of-vast-utilities

2. Barrington, M. (ms.). Ignoring the improbable. Available at https://www.mitchellbarrington.com/research/

3. Pascal's Wager

4. Unexpected Expectations

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