The Effects of an overvalued Exchange Rate on The Iranian Economy,1979–1984

Abstract

The Iranian economy under the Islamic Republic has been strongly influenced by factors which lie for the most part outside the Iranian government's control, in particular lower oil sales due to the Iraqi attack and to the world-wide oil glut. One should not underestimate, however, the impact of the policies which have traditionally most concerned economists, namely, the government budget and monetary matters. The major thesis of this article is that the Islamic Republic's economy has been heavily influenced by an overvalued exchange rate which has: (a) forced reductions in government development spending; (b) fueled inflation as the government printed money to finance its deficit; (c) worsened the imbalance in foreign trade by encouraging imports and discouraging non-oil exports; (d) subsidized the consumption of imported goods, primarily benefiting the urban population, especially the rich; (e) distorted the allocation of resources in favor of commerce at the expense of production; and (f) benefited well-to-do merchants at the expense of poorer farmers and artisans.