Abstract
SummaryAs natural and anthropogenic forcings impel anticipated climate change, their effects on biodiversity and environmental sustainability are evident. A fundamental question that is often overlooked is: which changes in climate will cause the redistribution or extinction of threatened species? Here, we mapped and modelled the current and future geographical distributions of the four threatened medicinal plants – Aconitum heterophyllum Wall. ex Royle, Fritillaria cirrhosa D.Don, Meconopsis aculeata Royle and Rheum webbianum Royle – in Kashmir Himalaya using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. Species occurrence records were collated from detailed field studies carried out between the years 2010 and 2020. Four general circulation models for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios were chosen for future range changes over periods around 2050 (average for 2041–2060) and 2070 (average of 2061–2080). Notable differences existed between species in their responses to predictive environmental variables of temperature and precipitation. Increase in the most suitable habitat, except for A. heterophyllum and R. webbianum, were evident across Himalayan Mountain regions, while the Pir Panjal mountain region exhibited a decrease for all four species under future climate change scenarios. This study exemplifies the idiosyncratic response of narrow-range plants to expected future climate change and highlights conservation implications.
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Subject
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law,Nature and Landscape Conservation,Pollution,Water Science and Technology
Reference54 articles.
1. CAMP (2003) Conservation Assessment and Management Prioritization Workshop for Medicinal Plants of Northwest Himalayan States of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Bangalore, India: Foundation for Revitalization of Local Health Tradition (FRLHT).
2. Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models
3. United Nations (2015) Transforming our world: the 2030 agenda for sustainable development [www document]. URL https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld/publication
4. The reliability of conservation status assessments at regional level: Past, present and future perspectives on Gentiana lutea L. ssp. lutea in Sardinia
5. Time series analysis of climate variability and trends in Kashmir Himalaya
Cited by
8 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献