Possible windborne spread to Western Turkey of bluetongue virus in 1977 and of Akabane virus in 1979

Abstract

SUMMARYAn outbreak of bluetongue in sheep started in the Menderes valley, Aydin Province, Western Turkey, in October 1977. The severity of the disease indicated that it had not been there before but had been introduced into the area. Anatysis showed that, while it was possible for the virus to have been brought into the area by movement of infected animals, there was also a period of south-easterly winds which could have carried infected midges from Cyprus, where bluetongue was present. During the night of 14–15 October 1977, south-easterly winds could have brought midges infected with bluetongue virus for the 15 h flight at a height possibly of 500 m and at temperatures of about 20 °C. A depression moving north-eastwards accompanied by rain may have affected the landing of midges in the Menderes valley on the morning of 15 October.An outbreak of arthrogryposis–hydranencephaly in newly born calves occurred in March–May 1980, also in the Menderes valley, Aydin Province. The severity of the outbreak indicated that Akabane virus had not been in the area before but had been introduced in September–November the previous year. While infected animals could have brought the virus into the area, analysis based on the probable time of infection of pregnant dams showed that easterly winds at the end of September or beginning of October 1979 could have brought insects infected with Akabane virus into the Menderes valley from eastern Turkey or northern Syria.These analyses illustrate the use of meteorological data to backtrack to possible sources and to identify the time of infection.