More on n-point, win-by-k games

Abstract

When Siegrist (1989) derived an expression for the probability that player A wins a game that consists of a sequence of Bernoulli trials, the winner being the first player to win n trials and have a lead of at least k, he noted the desirability of giving a direct probabilistic argument. Here we present such an argument, and extend the domain of applicability of the results beyond Bernoulli trials, including cases (such as the tie-break in lawn tennis) where the probability of winning each trial cannot reasonably be taken as constant, and to where there is Markov dependence between successive trials.