Alarming predictions for obesity and non-communicable diseases in the Middle East

Author:

Kilpi Fanny,Webber Laura,Musaigner Abdulrahman,Aitsi-Selmi Amina,Marsh Tim,Rtveladze Ketevan,McPherson Klim,Brown Martin

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveThe present study aimed to model obesity trends and future obesity-related disease for nine countries in the Middle East; in addition, to explore how hypothetical reductions in population obesity levels could ameliorate anticipated disease burdens.DesignA regression analysis of cross-sectional data v. BMI showed age- and sex-specific BMI trends, which fed into a micro simulation with a million Monte Carlo trials for each country. We also examined two alternative scenarios where population BMI was reduced by 1 % and 5 %.SettingStatistical modelling of obesity trends was carried out in nine Middle East countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey).SubjectsBMI data along with disease incidence, mortality and survival data from national and sub-national data sets were used for the modelling process.ResultsHigh rates of overweight and obesity increased in both men and women in most countries. The burden of incident type 2 diabetes, CHD and stroke would be moderated with even small reductions in obesity levels.ConclusionsObesity is a growing problem in the Middle East which requires government action on the primary prevention of obesity. The present results are important for policy makers to know the effectiveness of obesity interventions on future disease burden.

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Subject

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Nutrition and Dietetics,Medicine (miscellaneous)

Reference62 articles.

1. High Rates of Obesity and Non-Communicable Diseases Predicted across Latin America

2. Sibai AM & Hwalla N (2010) WHO STEPS Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance: Data Book for Lebanon, 2009. Lebanon: American University of Beirut; available at http://www.who.int/chp/steps/2008_STEPS_Lebanon.pdf

3. Obesity among Adult Bahraini Population: Impact of Physical Activity and Educational Level

4. Obesity in the Iranian population

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3