Economic Performance and Retrospective Voting in Canadian Federal Elections

Abstract

AbstractThis study examines the retrospective economic voting model for Canadian federal elections, 1930 through 1979. The analysis shows that change in personal or disposable income has a significant, direct impact on incumbency voting while inflation enters the voting calculus indirectly, as a (partial) deflator of nominal income, and unemployment has no effect. Disposable income is a better predictor of incumbency voting than is personal income, nominal income variables predict better than real values and variability in income performance is negatively related to incumbency voting. The study concludes that voter attribution of responsibility for income performance is focussed and specific, income stability as well as income growth are demanded through incumbency voting, and voters are affected by money illusion.