L'élection québécoise de 1985: un bilan des sondages

Abstract

AbstractA great number of polls have been made public by the media during the 1985 electoral campaign in Quebec. The polls correctly predicted the winning party, but were not very good for forecasting the actual vote. A difference of 3 percent has been observed between the prediction and the vote with respect to the Liberal party and third parties considered as a whole. It is shown that the discrepancy must be attributed more to those who do not answer polls at all than to those individuals not willing to reveal their vote intention. Finally, the campaign seems to have had a small impact on the vote, the Liberal party increasing its share by 2 per cent and third parties loosing many votes among those who were tempted to support them at the beginning of the campaign.