Analyse stratégique du choix d'un candidat dans une circonscription urbaine

Abstract

Strategic analysis is used in this article to report on a case study of candidate choice in an urban constituency. Several concepts are presented first. During a game, several agents, pursuing the objectives of a partisan organization, interact. It sometimes happens that the rules of the game do not anticipate completely the actions that ought to be advanced by the agents. There exists then a zone of uncertainty. If the agents come into conflict over the action to be taken there is a “crisis point.” Around a “crisis point” there occurs a particular play that can lead to several results. The agents have preferences regarding the results and they try, with the help of their resources, to impose their preferences on others. In order to leave nothing to chance, these rational agents establish strategies that guide their actions.The game described in this article has at stake the choice of a candidate for legislative elections. The agents are activists (or groups of activists) of the partisan constituency association. At the outset of the study there is one aspirant to the candidature; certain activists, for diverse reasons, reject the aspirant as candidate. They form a coalition and present another candidate. The two aspirants and their organizations campaign among members of the association who will decide the choice of candidate. In the course of the campaign several “crisis points” emerge: the two rival organizations oppose each other.Conclusions were drawn about the utility of case studies when they are made within a certain theoretical framework such as strategic analysis.