Inflation, Unemployment and Canadian Federal Voting Behaviour

Abstract

AbstractIdentifying the effect of macro-economic performance on levels of partisan support in Canada has attracted considerable attention. Findings in Canada, as elsewhere, often diverge depending upon whether aggregate or individual-level data are used. This study employs individual-level data from 1974 to 1984 to examine the effect of changes in unemployment and inflation on support for the various parties. Controlling for partisan and leader effects, we find that the electoral effect of inflation and unemployment is highly variable over time, and is in an unstable partisan direction. Indeed, at times the partisan effect was perverse.