Modeling of Atmospheric Radiocarbon Fluctuations for the Past Three Centuries

Abstract

Relatively precise quantitative observations of geophysical parameters are available to evaluate the fluctuations of atmospheric 14C activity during the past three centuries. As reviewed by Damon, Lerman, and Long (1978), these fluctuations seem to result from three factors: 1) changes in the earth's dipole magnetic field intensity, which has been decreasing since the first measurements by Gauss (McDonald and Gunst, 1968); 2) solar modulation of the cosmic-ray production, which has been correlated with the sunspot record of Waldmeier (1961), and more recently, to the Aa geomagnetic index by Stuiver and Quay (1980); and 3) the combustion of fossil fuels (Suess, 1955). A relationship between the climatic time series and the 14C-derived record of solar change has not yet been demonstrated (Stuiver, 1980).