On the Potential use of Index Paths for Avalanche Assessment

Abstract

AbstractThe possible use of index paths to assess avalanche potential in large avalanche samples was evaluated with probability theory on 56 uncontrolled avalanche paths in Colorado. Results showed the technique yields limited information of little diagnostic value because of low conditional probabilities of joint occurrence and high yearly variance. 90% of pairs tested had probabilities ≦0.20 for a six-year period. Implications for researchers and field personnel are discussed.