The ET Interview: Professor J. Tinbergen

Abstract

Jan Tinbergen is one of the founding fathers of econometrics, publishing in the field from 1927 until the early 1950s. This was the frontier age of econometrics when the distinction between mathematical economics and econometrics, let alone between theoretical and applied econometrics, did not yet exist. Tinbergen's approach to economics has always been a practical one. This was highly appropriate for the new field of econometrics, and enabled him to make important contributions to conceptual and theoretical issues, but always in the context of a relevant economic problem. The development of the first macroeconometric models, the solution of the identification problem, and the understanding of dynamic models are perhaps his three most important legacies to econometrics. Tinbergen was awarded the first Nobel Memorial Prize in economics in 1969 (jointly with Ragnar Frisch) for his contributions to econometrics.Tinbergen's desire to communicate his ideas to others is matched by a talent for clear and direct writing. This gives his econometric work great appeal and an apparent simplicity which should not be underestimated. This talent was also fruitfully applied to the development of pedagogical tools for teaching econometrics to his students.Since the early 1950s Tinbergen's interests have moved on and he has made notable contributions to such diverse fields as the theory of economic policy, development planning, and income distribution. Tinbergen's political and pacifist views have always been an important element in his economics, and even, as this interview shows, his econometrics. His overriding aim has been to improve the welfare of the less fortunate in this world.It is now 60 years since Tinbergen's first article in economics appeared, yet he shows no signs of retiring. We met him on May 27, 1986, in the study of his house in The Hague, where he has lived for most of his working life and which bears the hallmarks of continued study and writing. Most of the discussion during the afternoon concerned his econometric work published in the 1930s and 1940s. He gave us his views of those early developments—both what he thought then and how he sees them now. What follows is an edited transcript of the conversation. We hope that this interview will bring alive to the readers of the 1980s the issues and difficulties faced by econometricians in the 1930s, as well as Tinbergen's characteristic response to those problems. One of Tinbergen's attributes is a considerable modesty about his own achievements; the reader should bear this in mind when reading his remarks.