Recent changes in the Norske Øer Ice Barrier, coastal Northeast Greenland

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn Northeast Greenland, the Norske Øer Ice Barrier (NØIB) abuts Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79N) and Zachariae Isstrøm (ZI), two floating outlets of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. NØIB is an extensive region of perennially fast sea ice, which varies in size from year to year, but with complete breakup a rare event in the 20th century. It reportedly broke up in the 1950s and was seen to break up in 1997. Since 2000 the NØIB has broken up during 11 of the last 14 summers. The forcings driving the increased frequency of ice barrier breakup are poorly understood, and it is not clear if the breakup is a purely local phenomenon or an indicator of regional changes in the ocean and atmosphere. Here we use a logistic regression statistical model to show that the odds of breakup are linked to June positive degree days and July wind speeds at a nearby weather station. It is too soon to know if subtle changes detected on 79N and ZI in the last decade are connected to breakups of the NØIB but, if they are, it suggests a complex interaction between the atmosphere, ocean and outlet glaciers in this part of Greenland.