A Markov multiple state model for epidemic and insurance modelling

Author:

Tran Minh-HoangORCID

Abstract

AbstractWith recent epidemics such as COVID-19, H1N1 and SARS causing devastating financial loss to the economy, it is important that insurance companies plan for financial costs of epidemics. This article proposes a new methodology for epidemic and insurance modelling by combining the existing deterministic compartmental models and the Markov multiple state models to facilitate actuarial computations to design new health insurance plans that cover epidemics. Our method is inspired by the seminal paper (Feng and Garrido (2011) North American Actuarial Journal, 15, 112–136.) of Feng and Garrido and complements the work of Hillairet and Lopez et al. in Hillairet and Lopez ((2021) Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2021(8), 671–694.) and Hillairet et al. ((2022) Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 107, 88–101.) In this work, we use the deterministic SIR model and the Eyam epidemic data set to provide numerical illustrations for our method.

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Reference27 articles.

1. An option-based operational risk management model for pandemics;Hua;North American Actuarial Journal,2009

2. Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics. II. The problem of endemicity;Kermack;Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character,1932

3. SIR-type epidemic models as block structured markov processes;Lefevre;Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability,2020

4. Ruin problems for epidemic insurance;Lefevre;Advances in Applied Probability,2021

5. Ross, R. (1910) The Prevention of Malaria. London: John Murray Publishing House.

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3