First step and last resort: One-Euro-Jobs after the reform

Abstract

Abstract Job creation programmes aim at increasing the employability of hard-to-place unemployed, and eventually integrating them into employment. Yet, previous evaluation studies have been pessimistic about their efficacy. For One-Euro-Jobs, a job creation programme for welfare benefit recipients in Germany, previous evaluations found unfavourable effects particularly for easier-to-place participants. Thus, in 2012 the legislator reformed the programme in order to target the hard-to-place more accurately. This study is the first post-reform evaluation of One-Euro-Jobs. We find that, although the programme is indeed better targeted than before, One-Euro-Jobs decrease participants’ employment chances within three years after programme entry. These outcomes are worse than those found for pre-reform participants. We cannot conclude with certainty whether the reform decreased the programme’s efficacy, but we identify channels through which the reform and other contemporaneous changes may have done so. These channels include changes in programme design features, changes in business-cycle conditions, and prolonged lock-in effects due to “programme careers”. To substantiate the latter explanation, we also provide novel evidence that One-Euro-Jobs seem to initiate programme careers.