Author:
Wilkinson Robert R.,Ball Frank G.,Sharkey Kieran J.
Abstract
Abstract
We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic susceptible→infected→recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time t>0, a strict lower bound on the expected number of susceptibles and a strict upper bound on the expected number of recoveries in the general stochastic SIR epidemic. The proof is based on the recent message passing representation of SIR epidemics applied to a complete graph.
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Subject
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty,General Mathematics,Statistics and Probability
Cited by
6 articles.
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