Flowers, Tractors, & Telegram: Who are the Protesters in Belarus?: A Survey Based Assessment of Anti-Lukashenka Protest Participants

Author:

Onuch OlgaORCID,Sasse GwendolynORCID,Michiels SébastienORCID

Abstract

AbstractWho are the people who, in the face of extreme repression, unexpectedly take to the streets en masse in an authoritarian state? This article aims to answer this question with reference to the case of the Belarusian anti-Lukashenka mass mobilization of 2020. It employs unique data from an original online protest survey among citizens of Belarus who were 18 or older and residing in the country at the time of the protests (Onuch et. al.; MOBILISE 2020 & 2021; n = 17,174), fielded August 18, 2020–January 29, 2021.2 This survey was designed to: (a) capture as many protesters as possible; and (b) capture a large enough sample of non-protesters as a comparative reference group enabling us to better understand how different anti-Lukashenka protesters (n = 11,719) were from non-protesters (n = 5,455). Guided by theoretical and empirical expectations of contentious politics scholarship, we first provide descriptive statistics about the socio-demographic characteristics of the protesters, self-reported protest grievances and claims, and median protester preferences on a range of attitudes and policies. This portrait of the protesters is followed up by regression analysis to test whether these patterns hold at a statistically significant level when comparing protesters and non-protesters.

Funder

Economic and Social Research Council

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Subject

Political Science and International Relations,History,Geography, Planning and Development

Reference139 articles.

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2. Sasse, Gwendolyn et al. 2021. “Belarus at a Crossroads: Attitudes on Social and Political Change.” https://www.zois-berlin.de/publikationen/belarus-at-a-crossroads-attitudes-on-social-and-political-change. (May 28, 2021.)

3. Language, Nationalism, and Populism in Belarus

4. The Belarus Crisis: People, Protest, and Political Dispositions;Onuch;Post-Soviet Affairs,2022b

5. Grievances, Mobilization, and Mass Opposition to Authoritarian Regimes: A Subnational Analysis of East Germany’s 1953 Abbreviated Revolution

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