Absorption Probabilities for Sums of Random Variables Defined on a Finite Markov Chain

Abstract

SummaryThis paper is essentially a continuation of the previous one (5) and the notation established therein will be freely repeated. The sequence {ξr} of random variables is defined on a positively regular finite Markov chain {kr} as in (5) and the partial sums and are considered. Let ζn be the first positive ζr and let πjk(y), the ‘ruin’ function or absorption probability, be defined by The main result (Theorem 1) is an asymptotic expression for πjk(y) for large y in the case when , the expectation of ξ1 being computed under the unique stationary distribution for k0, the initial state of the chain, and unconditional on k1.