Author:
Frank Julieta,Garcia Philip,Irwin Scott H.
Abstract
We reassess the effect of new information in the Hogs and
Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on
announcements' rationality and alternative surprises.
HPR announcements are irrational estimates of
final estimates, and market expectations are irrational estimates of
HPR numbers. Using the market's best forecast
and incorporating final estimates, we modify conventional information
measures. Despite differences as large as 33 cents/cwt in price response,
findings suggest there is little to differentiate among surprise measures.
Regardless, the message that HPR provides new
information to the market is strongly supported. On balance, marketing
(breeding) information has a larger effect on short-term (long-term) price
changes.
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Subject
Economics and Econometrics,Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
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