Improving the prospective prediction of a near-term suicide attempt in veterans at risk for suicide, using a go/no-go task

Abstract

Abstract Background Neurocognitive testing may advance the goal of predicting near-term suicide risk. The current study examined whether performance on a Go/No-go (GNG) task, and computational modeling to extract latent cognitive variables, could enhance prediction of suicide attempts within next 90 days, among individuals at high-risk for suicide. Method 136 Veterans at high-risk for suicide previously completed a computer-based GNG task requiring rapid responding (Go) to target stimuli, while withholding responses (No-go) to infrequent foil stimuli; behavioral variables included false alarms to foils (failure to inhibit) and missed responses to targets. We conducted a secondary analysis of these data, with outcomes defined as actual suicide attempt (ASA), other suicide-related event (OtherSE) such as interrupted/aborted attempt or preparatory behavior, or neither (noSE), within 90-days after GNG testing, to examine whether GNG variables could improve ASA prediction over standard clinical variables. A computational model (linear ballistic accumulator, LBA) was also applied, to elucidate cognitive mechanisms underlying group differences. Results On GNG, increased miss rate selectively predicted ASA, while increased false alarm rate predicted OtherSE (without ASA) within the 90-day follow-up window. In LBA modeling, ASA (but not OtherSE) was associated with decreases in decisional efficiency to targets, suggesting differences in the evidence accumulation process were specifically associated with upcoming ASA. Conclusions These findings suggest that GNG may improve prediction of near-term suicide risk, with distinct behavioral patterns in those who will attempt suicide within the next 90 days. Computational modeling suggests qualitative differences in cognition in individuals at near-term risk of suicide attempt.