Latent class regression models for simultaneously estimating test accuracy, true prevalence and risk factors for Brucella abortus

Abstract

SUMMARYIn 2003/2004 a field trial was conducted in Northern Ireland to assess the diagnostic accuracy of six serological tests for bovine brucellosis caused by Brucella abortus. Whereas between-test comparisons have been used to calculate test performances so far, the present study used a latent class approach to estimate diagnostic test accuracy parameters in the absence of a gold standard for these six tests simultaneously and to estimate the true prevalence, while accounting for clustering in the study population and risk factors for true prevalence. Results obtained in this study with regard to prevalence, sensitivity and specificity were largely in accordance with previous findings. Screening tests (SAT and EDTA) appeared to be the most sensitive; however, at low prevalences the EDTA and CFT showed the highest positive predictive values of all investigated tests. The specificities and negative predictive values of all diagnostic tests were found to be very high. Differences of prevalence between three groups of the study population with different risk of exposure could be attributed to the mode of sampling indicating that a more risk-based sampling will result in a higher prevalence than a cross-sectional sampling mode. Age, dairy status and history of abortion were shown to influence the prediction of the latent true infection status.