The global context of the US farm bill in 2018: world markets, instability and policy preferences in agriculture

Abstract

AbstractAs the 2018 farm bill approaches, some important trends have emerged regarding the policy preferences of different commodity producers. While some farm organizations like the American Farm Bureau advocate for expanding free trade, other groups argue for more trade protections and even greater support from the federal government. This paper examines the global context that shapes such divergent policy positions. I argue that global demand has expanded for particular commodities (especially, feed grains and meat), leading producers of those commodities to push for free trade and weaker political regulations of agriculture. At the same time, however, greater liberalization over the past 25 years has contributed to greater competition for some commodities, such as wheat. Liberalization in the world economy has also contributed to greater market instability, especially in terms of prices and production. This instability and increased competition have pushed some commodity producers to favor national regulations and trade protections for agriculture. Focusing corn, soybeans and wheat, I argue that these three aspects of the global context—global demand, international competition and price instability—shape the policy preferences of US producers regarding the 2018 farm bill. I draw on statistics from the United States Department of Agriculture and Food and Agriculture Organization to illustrate these aspects of the global context.