Which empirical model is best suited to simulate glacier mass balances?

Abstract

ABSTRACTBased on an extensive dataset of surface mass balances (SMB) from four glaciers in the French Alps for the period 1995–2012 and in the framework of enhanced temperature-index models, we investigate the sensitivity of seasonal glacier SMB to temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and topographical variables. Our results reveal strong correlations between winter SMB and precipitation, although the precipitation gradient cannot explain the high-accumulation rates. Based on the available point measurements, we found no relevant relationship between winter SMB and topographical variables. Temperature was found to be the main driver of ice/snow ablation while solar radiation was found to strongly influence the spatial distribution of summer SMB. We compared the ability of several enhanced temperature-index models to accurately simulate point SMB and glacier-wide MB. Our analyses revealed that the uncertainties in the simulated annual SMB due to winter SMB uncertainties are larger than differences between models and prevented us from concluding, which model is the most suitable. In contrast with results of previous studies, including solar radiation in melt models did not improve the performances when modelling glacier-wide MB. We conclude that a classical degree-day model is sufficient to simulate the long-term glacier-wide MB if the underlying processes are not required to be resolved.