The Growing Burden of an Ageing Population?

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn most economically developed societies at present there is an active debate about the implications of the growing proportion of their populations who are elderly. In most such countries the changing age structure is seen in almost entirely negative terms. This paper argues for a less pessimistic approach. The transition to an older population will be gradual enough to allow time to plan. The importance of the shift in the so-called ‘dependency ratio’ is exaggerated because ‘dependency’ is unsatisfactorily defined. Nor is there clear evidence that as more people live to be older health and social service costs will rise accordingly: people are remaining fit to later ages and there is strong evidence that they can continue to make a positive contribution to the economy as workers and as consumers until relatively late ages. Social services can also be redesigned to maximize the independence of the elderly while minimizing costs. Since the ageing of society is unavoidable we should seek ways to treat the elderly as a resource rather than viewing them as a burden.