A random walk in the literature on criminality: A partial and critical view on some statistical analyses and modelling approaches

Abstract

We are interested in the possible contributions of mathematical modelling of crime. We refer to numerous and quite recent papers that analyse and discuss empirical data in an attempt to discover stylised trends worthy of being understood through simple models. We summarise part of this literature and try to understand the reasons of important discrepancies in their conclusions. Then we present some recent modelling attempts that may help to understand the large variance in the statistical-based conclusions.