OIL PRICE SHOCKS, INVENTORIES, AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS

Abstract

This paper investigates the time delay in the transmission of oil price shocks using disaggregated manufacturing data on inventories and sales. VAR estimates indicate that industry-level inventories and sales respond faster to an oil price shock than aggregate gross domestic product, especially in industries that are energy-intensive. In response to an unexpected oil price increase, sales drop and inventories are accumulated. This leads to future reductions in production. We estimate a modified linear–quadratic inventory model to inquire whether the patterns observed in the VAR impulse responses are consistent with rational behavior by the firms. Estimation results suggest that three mechanisms play a role in the industry-level dynamics. First, oil prices act as a negative demand shock. Second, the shock catches manufacturers by surprise, resulting in higher-than-anticipated inventories. Third, because of their desire to smooth production, manufacturers deviate from the target level of inventories and spread the decline in production over various quarters; hence the delay in the response of aggregate output.