THE EFFECTS OF HIGH BANKING SPREADS IN AN INFORMAL ECONOMY

Abstract

We investigate the aggregate and distributional effects of banking spreads in an economy with informality. We build a heterogeneous agents model with incomplete markets, credit frictions, and a rich occupational choice setting, in which informality is an option for both employers and workers. The main finding is that reductions in spreads for formal firms increase wages, output, and welfare but have a deleterious impact on unemployment and inequality. Dropping spreads for informal firms lead to reduction in inequality indicators at the expense of consumption and welfare. By calibrating the model for Brazil, we also find that a hypothetical extinction of the informal sector can be harmful for poor agents, but combined with a spread reduction, it can generate strong positive effects on output and welfare.