Statistical Studies in Immunity: The Theory of an Epidemic

Abstract

The rise and decline of epidemics of infectious diseases have been subjects of interest since the earliest times, but the scientific determination of the laws which govern their course offers even yet a wide and almost unworked field. Not but what a large amount of observation has been made on many of the conditions under which epidemics appear and pass away. Many epidemics are seasonal, and these have been studied; but the lack of any means of determining the course which a given epidemic might have taken in the presence of somewhat different conditions has made the deduction of certain conclusions impossible. Even the laws which regulate solitary outbursts of disease, the special subject of this paper, have been little studied. Explanations offered have varied with the period in history.