Author:
O'CALLAGHAN C. J.,MEDLEY G. F.,PETER T. F.,PERRY B. D.
Abstract
A mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of
Cowdria ruminantium by the ixodid tick Amblyomma hebraeum
in
the bovine host is developed and used to investigate the epidemiology
of heartwater across a range of vector challenge.
The processes described are supported by empirical data. The pattern of
outcome measures (incidence, case-fatality and
proportion of infected hosts) predicted agrees with those described
anecdotally from field experience and empirical
observation, and demonstrates the concept of endemic stability. The
underlying theory is explored and it is shown that
endemic stability may be due principally to the protection of calves
against disease by either innate or maternally derived
factors. The role of vertical infection in the establishment and maintenance
of endemic stability is also investigated.
Although increasing the vertical infection proportion results in endemic
stability occurring at progressively lower levels
of tick challenge, the concomitant reduction in incidence and
case-fatality predictions across the range of tick challenge
means the endemically stable state simultaneously becomes less discernible.
Model limitations and future developments
are discussed. The essential role of a transmission dynamics model in
assessing the impact of new vaccines in conjunction
with vector control programmes is highlighted.
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Subject
Infectious Diseases,Animal Science and Zoology,Parasitology
Cited by
40 articles.
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