THE EFFECT OF OBESITY

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between body mass and risk of death among US adults. The National Health Interview Survey–Multiple Cause of Death linked data set is used for the years 1987–1997, and Cox proportional hazard models are employed to estimate the association between obesity, as measured by the body mass index (BMI), and overall, circulatory disease-specific and diabetes-specific mortality. A U-shaped relationship is found between BMI and overall mortality. Compared with normal weight individuals, mortality during the follow-up period is 34% higher among obese class II individuals and 77% higher among obese class III individuals, controlling for age and sex. A J-shaped relationship exists between circulatory disease mortality and obesity, with a slightly higher risk of death for all categories of BMI. The relationship between BMI and diabetes mortality is striking. Compared with normal weight individuals, obese class I individuals are 2·8 times as likely to die, obese class II individuals are 4·7 times as likely to die, and obese class III individuals are 9·0 times as likely to die of diabetes during the follow-up period, controlling for age and sex. These results demonstrate that obesity heightens the risk of overall and circulatory disease mortality, and even more substantially increases the risk of diabetes mortality. These mortality findings, together with the substantial recent increases in obesity, lend urgency to public health programmes aimed at reducing the prevalence and consequences of obesity.