Contemporary Trends in the Stability of English Marriage

Abstract

SummaryFrom 1959 to 1969 the annual number of petitions for divorce in England and Wales increased by 133%, and the rate of divorce per 1000 married population increased by an estimated 100%. Traditional explanations for the historical increase in divorce, relying on such factors as increased legal and financial opportunity, wartime disturbances and demographic changes, seem inappropriate to deal with recent experience, and it is proposed that normative changes are involved. Cohort analysis suggests that the marriages of the 1960s are more vulnerable to early divorce than those of the 1939/45 war, and that this vulnerability was increasing throughout the period. It seems likely that earlier divorce also implies higher proportions ultimately divorcing.Total marriage breakdown is impossible to quantify because some separations are informal and leave no record. However, a formula is proposed for totalling divorce petitions and matrimonial proceedings in the lower courts to calculate annual numbers of breakdowns newly coming to public notice. Calculations based on this show an increase in annual numbers of 75% over the period, and of 65% in the rate, thus demonstrating that divorce figures alone give a false impression of trends in marriage breakdown. Although the rates and numbers of unrecorded breakdown are unknown, and may be diminishing, it is concluded that breakdown is probably increasing in volume among contemporary marriages. On the basis of speculative estimates it is also suggested that perhaps one sixth to one quarter of contemporary marriages may ultimately experience some form of breakdown.The question is posed whether the increases shown represent a generational effect, due to pass, or a new pattern of high manifest breakdown rates. On the basis of trends in the indices of various forms of valueorientated personal behaviour (including divorce), it is suggested that from about 1955 onwards new patterns of behaviour began to emerge. The causation of such patterns is attributed to social structural changes developing since the was which have fostered a more permissive approach to personal behaviour. It is concluded that these trends have influenced the norms of marriage behaviour, and that relatively high rates of marriage breakdown will henceforth be an integral feature of social experience.