Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of foot-and-mouth disease data from the Republic of Turkey

Abstract

SUMMARYA flexible hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal regression model for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was applied to data on the annual number of reported FMD cases in Turkey from 1996 to 2003. The longitudinal component of the model was specified as a latent province-specific stochastic process. This stochastic process can accommodate various types of FMD temporal profiles. The model accounted for differences in FMD occurrence across provinces and for spatial correlation. Province-level covariate information was incorporated into the analysis. Results pointed to a decreasing trend in the number of FMD cases in western Turkey and an increasing trend in eastern Turkey from 1996 to 2003. The model also identified provinces with high and with low propensities for FMD occurrence. The model's use of flexible structures for temporal trend and of generally applicable methods for spatial correlation has broad application to predicting future spatiotemporal distributions of disease in other regions of the world.