Reconstruction and analysis of the transmission network of African swine fever in People’s Republic of China, August 2018–September 2019

Abstract

Abstract Introduction of African swine fever (ASF) to China in mid-2018 and the subsequent transboundary spread across Asia devastated regional swine production, affecting live pig and pork product-related markets worldwide. To explore the spatiotemporal spread of ASF in China, we reconstructed possible ASF transmission networks using nearest neighbour, exponential function, equal probability, and spatiotemporal case-distribution algorithms. From these networks, we estimated the reproduction numbers, serial intervals, and transmission distances of the outbreak. The mean serial interval between paired units was around 29 days for all algorithms, while the mean transmission distance ranged 332 –456 km. The reproduction numbers for each algorithm peaked during the first two weeks and steadily declined through the end of 2018 before hovering around the epidemic threshold value of 1 with sporadic increases during 2019. These results suggest that 1) swine husbandry practices and production systems that lend themselves to long-range transmission drove ASF spread; 2) outbreaks went undetected by the surveillance system. Efforts by China and other affected countries to control ASF within their jurisdictions may be aided by the reconstructed spatiotemporal model. Continued support for strict implementation of biosecurity standards and improvements to ASF surveillance is essential for halting transmission in China and spread across Asia.