A spatial analysis of the spread of mumps: the importance of college students and their spring-break-associated travel

Abstract

SUMMARYTo characterize the association between county-level risk factors and the incidence of mumps in the 2006 Iowa outbreak, we used generalized linear mixed models with the number of mumps cases per county as the dependent variable. To assess the impact of spring-break travel, we tested for differences in the proportions of mumps cases in three different age groups. In the final multivariable model, the proportion of Iowa's college students per county was positively associated (P<0·0001) with mumps cases, but the number of colleges was negatively associated with cases (P=0·0002). Thus, if the college students in a county were spread among more campuses, this was associated with fewer mumps cases. Finally, we found the proportion of mumps cases in both older and younger persons increased after 1 April (P=0·0029), suggesting that spring-break college travel was associated with the spread of mumps to other age groups.