Vaccination of cattle only is sufficient to stop FMDV transmission in mixed populations of sheep and cattle

Abstract

SUMMARYWe quantified the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus in mixed cattle-sheep populations and the effect of different vaccination strategies. The (partial) reproduction ratios (R) in groups of non-vaccinated and vaccinated cattle and/or sheep were estimated from (published) transmission experiments. A 4 × 4 next-generation matrix (NGM) was constructed using these estimates. The dominant eigenvalue of the NGM, the R for a mixed population, was determined for populations with different proportions of cattle and sheep and for three different vaccination strategies. The higher the proportion of cattle in a mixed cattle-sheep population, the higher the R for the mixed population. Therefore the impact of vaccination of the cattle is higher. After vaccination of all animals R = 0·1 independent of population composition. In mixed cattle-sheep populations with at least 14% of cattle, vaccination of cattle only is sufficient to reduce R to < 1.