Time-series model to predict impact of H1N1 influenza on a children's hospital

Abstract

SUMMARYThe spring of 2009 witnessed the emergence of a novel influenza A(H1N1) virus resulting in the first influenza pandemic since 1968. In autumn of 2010, the 2009 novel H1N1 influenza strain re-emerged. We performed a retrospective time-series analysis of all patients with laboratory-confirmed H1N1 influenza who presented to our institution during 2009. Cases of influenza were assembled into 3-day aggregates and forecasting models of H1N1 influenza incidence were created. Forecasting estimates of H1N1 incidence for the 2010–2011 season were compared to actual values for our institution to assess model performance. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals calculated around our model's forecasts were accurate to ±3·6 cases per 3-day period for our institution. Our results suggest that time-series models may be useful tools in forecasting the incidence of H1N1 influenza, helping institutions to optimize distribution of resources based on the changing burden of illness.