Malthus and the Theory of ‘Unequal Powers’: Population and Food Production in India, 1800–1947

Abstract

The spectre of a ‘Malthusian’ catastrophe engulfing the subcontinent commands less attention currently than in relatively recent times. This is largely attributable to the greater sense of confidence in the food-grain supply capacity of Indian agriculture in the wake of the Green Revolution. From the mid-1960s through to 1980, output has maintained a growth rate in excess of 2.5% p.a., with yield increments rather than area increments accounting for the major part. Since 1950, per capita net availability of foodgrains has increased by over 20%, while the real price of foodgrains has shown a steady downward trend since 1968. Current projections suggest that self-sufficiency in food production can be sustained through to the end of the century. Yet this remains partly contingent on climatic factors and a slackening trend of population growth. However, population growth rates currently exceed 2.2% p.a. and the relative stability of fertility rates means that a diminution is by no means assured. While supply shortfalls could be met through increased imports of food commodities, the possible emergence of India in the longer term as a food deficitary economy could have serious implications for the international grain market, given the current structure of supply for foodgrains and the growing dependence, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, on food imports.