The international economy as a constraint on U. S. macroeconomic policymaking

Abstract

International economic factors increasingly influence American trade and exchange policy, and interdependence also circumscribes the autonomous choice of domestic policies. But the growing concern of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) policymakers over the potential for macroeconomic policy coordination to enhance national as well as world welfare implies that international economic relations present opportunities rather than constraints under some circumstances. This suggests that understanding domestic economic policy choice within its international context involves not only how policy choices are made within the bounds of international constraints, but also when countries might cooperate to modify the constraints themselves. This research looks to four important historical cases for information on these questions: the first three are the series of cumulating crises in the international monetary system during the 1960s and early 1970s, the fourth is the energy supply shock of 1973 and the recession that followed. The article describes the process of policy selection in each of these cases, contrasting domestic versus international premises for policy choice. The economics literature has emphasized the magnitude of domestic welfare gains available from coordinated national economic policies. Although the cases considered here do not contradict the importance of payoffs, they underline the corresponding role of political, economic, and strategic uncertainty in conditioning elites' policy choices.