Defining security in a changing Arctic: helping to prevent an Arctic security dilemma

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn recent years, radical changes such as rapid warming and ice retreat have become evident in the Arctic region, as recognised by the scientific community, as well as Arctic and non-Arctic states. Against this background, where the Arctic is accumulating economic importance and geopolitical significance for Arctic states and international stakeholders, the main regional actors have engaged in increased cooperation efforts, which is in contrast to the often invoked talk about an imminent conflict or ‘race for resources in the region’. At the same time, modernisation and expansion of military activities and capabilities have been pursued by several Arctic states. While these measures cannot be exclusively attributed to a militarisation of the Arctic and require further discussion, a misperception of such actions may result in the destabilisation of regional cooperation efforts. Furthermore, when considered in a broader context, possible threats to peaceful coexistence in the Arctic are more likely to arise from the present global situation. For example, the invasion of Ukraine has provoked a partial shift in regional cooperation and an uncontrolled spillover effect of the conflict between Russia and Western countries could disrupt regional stability. Drawing on the perspective of International Relations (IR) literature, and considering the absence of a regional institution devoted to security issues, this article highlights the importance of adopting confidence- and security-building measures among all relevant actors in order to create a forum for the discussion of ‘hard’ security topics, to prevent any destabilising effect on Arctic cooperation and security. Such measures may be promoted within existing fora, primarily the Arctic Council.