The realization of fertility intentions in the context of childbearing postponement: comparison of transitional and post-transitional populations

Abstract

AbstractChildbearing postponement is a key demographic change that has been experienced by most European countries. It leads to a late-fertility pattern, with women realizing their reproductive plans preferentially after the age of 30. This may result in a lower fertility level. Since the ideal family size has not changed in most European countries, it has been argued that the end of the postponement transition further depends on the extent to which the lower fertility of younger women is compensated for by an increase in that of older women. Thus, the completion of the transition depends not only on the formation of a late childbearing pattern, but also on the capability of women to realize their reproductive plans if they commence childbearing later in their lives. This study employed a new approach to assess postponement transition based on analysis of the realization of the fertility intentions of women at later childbearing ages using survey panel data. A method that enables the differentiation between transitional and post-transitional cohorts was applied. The investigation was based on a comparison of the postponement transition in Czechia and France, the former being a post-communist and the latter a Western European country. It was found that despite having a similar pattern of fertility timing, Czechia and France underwent differing phases of postponement transition. The Czech population was identified as being transitional since only the ‘transition’ cohorts had completed their fertility during the period under study. These cohorts did not show a significant increase in realization of fertility intentions in later age. In contrast, the post-transitional French population is characterized by higher completed cohort fertility rates amongst women who entered motherhood at the age of 30 and over and by the significantly higher realization of fertility intentions for women aged 30–34 years.