Fertility, birth timing and marital breakdown: a reinterpretation of the evidence

Abstract

SummaryThe conventional view that childlessness was associated with higher than average risk of marital breakdown was questioned by Chester (1972) and Gibson (1980) on the basis of analysis of divorce records. Data from the 1980 General Household Survey are used to show that childless couples, and those who have children early in marriage (and are thus more likely to have large families) are considerably more at risk of breakdown at all marriage durations than delayed two-child families. The reasons for the different conclusions of these three studies are assessed and it is concluded that standardization has many unattractive features for demographic analysis (especially in areas other than mortality), and that presentations based on relative or absolute risk of breakdown allow the key features to be assessed most satisfactorily.