Author:
Oller Pere,Baeza Cristina,Furdada Glòria
Abstract
AbstractA variation in the α−β model which is a regression model that allows a deterministic prediction of the extreme runout to be expected in a given path, was applied for calculating avalanche runout in the Catalan Pyrenees. Present knowledge of major avalanche activity in this region and current mapping tools were used. The model was derived using a dataset of 97 ‘extreme’ avalanches that occurred from the end of 19th century to the beginning of 21st century. A multiple linear regression model was obtained using three independent variables: inclination of the avalanche path, horizontal length and area of the starting zone, with a good fit of the function (R2 = 0.81). A larger starting zone increases the runout and a larger length of the path reduces the runout. The new updated equation predicts avalanche runout for a return period of ~100 years. To study which terrain variables explain the extreme values of the avalanche dataset, a comparative analysis of variables that influence a longer or shorter runout was performed. The most extreme avalanches were treated. The size of the avalanche path and the aspect of the starting zone showed certain association between avalanches with longer or shorter runouts.
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Reference78 articles.
1. An extreme event between the little ice age and the 20th century: the snow avalanche cycle of 1888 in the Asturian Massif (northern Spain);García-Hernández;Geographical Research Letters,2018
2. Statistical avalanche-runout estimation for short slopes in Canada
3. Statistical runout modeling of snow avalanches using GIS in Glacier National Park, Canada
4. Mears, AI (1988) Comparisons of Colorado, Eastern Sierra, Coastal Alaska, and Western Norway Runout Data. International Snow Science Workshop (ISSW), Wistler, BC. Pp. 232–238.
5. Extracting the Variance Inflation Factor and Other Multicollinearity Diagnostics from Typical Regression Results
Cited by
3 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献