Modeling spatially distributed snow instability at a regional scale using Alpine3D

Abstract

AbstractAssessing the avalanche danger level requires snow stratigraphy and instability data. As such data are usually sparse, we investigated whether distributed snow cover modeling can be used to provide information on spatial instability patterns relevant for regional avalanche forecasting. Using Alpine3D, we performed spatially distributed simulations to evaluate snow instability for the winter season 2016–17 in the region of Davos, Switzerland. Meteorological data from automatic weather stations were interpolated to 100 m horizontal resolution and precipitation was scaled with snow depth measurements from airborne laser scanning. Modeled snow instability metrics assessed for two different weak layers suggested that the weak layer closer to the snow surface was more variable. Initially, it was less stable than the weak layer closer to the ground, yet it stabilized faster as the winter progressed. In spring, the simulated snowpack on south-facing slopes stabilized faster than on north-facing slopes, in line with the regional avalanche forecast. In the winter months January to March 2017, simulated instability metrics did not suggest that the snowpack on south-facing slopes was more stable, as reported in the regional avalanche forecast. Although a validation with field data is lacking, these model results still show the potential and challenges of distributed modeling for supporting operational avalanche forecasting.