Significant chick loss after early fast ice breakup at a high-latitude emperor penguin colony

Abstract

AbstractEmperor penguins require stable fast ice, sea ice anchored to land or ice shelves, on which to lay eggs and raise chicks. As the climate warms, changes in sea ice are expected to lead to substantial declines at many emperor penguin colonies. The most southerly colonies have been predicted to remain buffered from the direct impacts of warming for much longer. Here, we report on the unusually early breakup of fast ice at one of the two southernmost emperor penguin colonies, Cape Crozier (77.5°S), in 2018, an event that may have resulted in a substantial loss of chicks from the colony. Fast ice dynamics can be highly variable and dependent on local conditions, but earlier fast ice breakup, influenced by increasing wind speed, as well as higher surface air temperatures, is a likely outcome of climate change. What we observed at Cape Crozier in 2018 highlights the vulnerability of this species to untimely storm events and could be an early sign that even this high-latitude colony is not immune to the effects of warming. Long-term monitoring will be key to understanding this species' response to climate change and altered sea ice dynamics.