Predicting Weed Migration from Soil and Climate Maps

Abstract

Soil characteristics, elevation, annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, length of frost-free season, and mean maximum July temperature were estimated for 116 established infestations of spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa Lam. # CENMA) in Montana using basic land resource maps. Areas potentially vulnerable to invasion by the plant were delineated on the basis of representative edaphic and climatic characteristics. No single environmental variable was an effective predictor of sites vulnerable to invasion by spotted knapweed. Only a combination of variables was effective, indicating that the factors that regulate adaptability of this plant are complex. This technique provides a first approximation map of the regions most similar environmentally to infested sites and, therefore, most vulnerable to further invasion. This weed migration prediction technique shows promise for predicting suitable habitats of other invader species.