Author:
Babad Yair,Grenham Dermot,Gutterman Sam
Abstract
Abstract
Fertility, particularly at its current low level in many developed countries and high level in some less developed countries, is a key factor driving demographic, economic, and societal changes at local, national, and global levels. Population ageing due to low fertility and increasing longevity represents one of the most significant global megatrends and risks. Many countries are already experiencing population decline and rapid growth of their elderly populations, with implications for workforce size, economic development, health and pension schemes, and social security arrangements. Actuaries are well known for their work on mortality and morbidity, but they have rarely considered fertility and its proximate determinants, despite their demographic and economic effects. This paper explores key explanations and outcomes of past and projected future fertility trends, and the implications for actuaries and for political and economic decision-makers.
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Subject
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty,Economics and Econometrics,Statistics and Probability
Reference63 articles.
1. Reibstein, L. (2017). The impact of public policy on fertility rates in OECD countries: a comparative study. Lund University, School of Economics and Management, available at lup.lub.lu.se›luur›download.
2. Global, regional, and national estimates and trends in stillbirths from 2000 to 2019: a systematic assessment
3. Office of the Chief Actuary (2023). The long-range demographic assumptions for the 2023 trustees report. U.S. Social Security Administration, available at https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/tr/2023/2023_Long-Range_Demographic_Assumptions.pdf (accessed 31 March 2023).
4. Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis
5. The Great Demographic Reversal