The Growth of Women's Representation in the Canadian House of Commons and the Election of 1984: A Reappraisal

Abstract

AbstractIn the 1980s, Canada went from having one of the lowest levels of female representation in its national legislature to having one of the highest among countries with single-member district electoral systems. The authors examine the common assertion that this increase was largely due to the surprising Progressive Conservative landslide in the 1984 federal election. By simulating plausible alternative election results they find there would have been a substantial increase in the number of women in the parliament, regardless of how the vote split in 1984. The simulations are followed by probit analyses for 1980, 1984 and 1988 which examine what factors affected the probability a major-party candidate would be a woman and what factors affected the probability that a successful candidate would be a woman.