Les femmes sont-elles candidates dans des circonscriptions perdues d'avance? De l'examen d'une croyance

Abstract

AbstractWe can read in the literature that women more often than men are candidates in constituencies where defeat is expected. This study examines whether this belief is accurate. The population examined includes male and female candidates for the Québec Liberal party and the Parti Québécois during the 1976, 1981, 1985 and 1989 elections. Three different formulas were applied to the 958 electoral situations, from which one global difficulty index was devised. Using a log-linear model, the relation between the variables “sex of candidate” and “constituency's level of difficulty” (high, average or low) was compared. Results have shown that between 1976 and 1989, women were not more likely than men to run in constituencies where there was no hope that they would win. It must be noted though, that in 1981, fewer women than men ran for the Parti Québécois in constituencies where victory seemed highly probable. However, when only new candidacies are considered, party affiliation becomes the most significant variable. In conclusion, it is noted that political parties will have to collaborate if more women are to become members of the National Assembly.